Modeling Structural-Demographic Processes 21 Part Two Overview of Structural Demographic Variables: 1780–2010 3. An event every week that begins at 3:30 p.m. on Tuesday, repeating until Tuesday, February 16, 2021, An event every 2 weeks that begins at 6:30 p.m. on Tuesday, repeating until Tuesday, May 4, 2021, Email Preferences (Select All That Apply) The book takes the reader on a roller-coaster ride through American history, from the Era of Good Feelings of the 1820s to our first Age of Discord, which culminated in the American Civil War, to post-WW2 prosperity and, finally, to our present, second Age of Discord. Ultrasociety may be of even more interest to you, as it deals with the role of war and religion in the development of large scale societies. Turchin basically says the New Deal, therefore, was irrelevant and not a turning point for any purposes. Read my review on infantry tactics! The integrative phase ended, and the phase reversal began, about 1970. But not in America, where there is sociological dispute, as Turchin admits, though for his purposes, he settles on a definition of the ruling class as being primarily economic in nature—the owners of property and capital, and the managers thereof. A Dynamic Analysis of American Socio-Political History. It goes on, and on, and on (on and on and on it goes) . If something can’t go on forever, it won’t, but it may end tomorrow or in two hundred years. Different societies exhibit this in different ways—for example, in some societies, the power of the ruling class is largely military, and in others, it is ideological or economic. Ages of Discord is Turchin’s attempt to apply the same theory to … Such... Starship Troopers, sixty years old, is a famous work of science fiction. Great timing. Peter Turchin, however, offers a very convincing, and very well-supported, tying of patterns to data. Ages of Discord: A Structural-Demographic Analysis of American History. The truth they feed is feeble “As all these trends intensify, the end result is state bankruptcy and consequent loss of military control; elite movements of regional and national rebellion; and a combination of elite-mobilized and popular uprisings that expose the breakdown of central authority.” This drives the disintegrative phase of the secular cycle, involving increased mortality, decreased productivity, instability, political violence, war, and, potentially, collapse—followed, ultimately, by a new integrative phase, sometimes with a very different society, sometimes with much the same society, where the three principles reverse in unison. — Aleksandr Solzhenitsyn, A little less conversation, a little more action, please / All this aggravation ain't satisfactioning me . Weekly Student Group Email (current UMN students) Please enable JavaScript in your browser. So my holistic approach may or may not be compatible with Turchin’s mechanical approach; that their conclusions generally align may just be coincidence. In 2019, the largest share of game players in the United Kingdom (UK) were young adults, aged between 16 and 24. The real wage of a US worker today is less than it was 40 years ago—but there are four times as many multimillionaires. “[A] typical historical state goes through a sequence of relatively stable political regimes separated by unstable periods characterized by recurrent waves of internal war. I predict that Foundationalism will be formally launched as a program within twenty-four months. In particular, he focuses on “trend reversals”—the inflection points at which all the factors, feeding back into each other, resulted in a major shift of direction within the period of perhaps a decade. Turchin points out that elite conflict is tied to Robert Putnam’s distinction between bridging and bonding social capital, and cites Putnam for the proposition that “cultural dissimilarity within a group tends to decrease the capacity for within-group cooperation.” That is, diversity is the very opposite of our strength—not just because people tend to trust those like them, but because different ethnic groups have their own norms of cooperation, and coordinating those between groups while maintaining trust is difficult or impossible. Turchin uses, as usual, clever proxies, such as the naming patterns of counties to show trust in government prior to 1950 (when direct polling data on trust in government first became available). No shock, in disintegrative phases, trust in government is low. Ages of Discord marshals Structural-Demographic Theory and detailed historical data to show that this is, indeed, the case. And thank you for the compliments! We’re all chained to the rhythm (we’re all) To take a less commonly known example, the integrative phase of Valois France was AD 1450–1560; its disintegrative phase was AD 1560–1660. In most modern societies it is administrative—that is, bureaucratic. Inequality declined. So comfortable, we’re livin’ in a bubble, bubble A Review of Ages of Discord: A Structural Demographic Analysis of American History by Peter Turchin (Beresta Books, 2016) On the basis of a demographic theory tested on premodern societies, it correctly predicts that we in 2020 are headed straight into Hell (and then inevitably back.) To be straightforward, it’s difficult to determine the religious affiliation of Reddit’s user … I have always been keenly interested in comparative theology. Break down the walls to connect, inspire What do I think of all this? Ages of Discord is an attempt to substantiate that claim, and offers predictions of chaos in America’s near future. If you subscribe will get a notification of all new writings by email. In their eternal quest to remake reality, a perennial target of the Left is the family: man, woman, and children, the bedrock of all human societies. His point is that more and more it is winner-take-all, demonstrating increasing intraelite competition. If he were writing today, he would doubtless adduce the recent college admissions scandal, where the elite bribed their children’s way into prestigious colleges. Yeah, we think we’re free Wellbeing increased—even during the Depression, contrary to myth. As inequality grows, the politics become more poisonous. If you wish for peace, prepare for war. It’s not that history follows a random walk, like the stock market. Yeah, we think we’re free Perhaps addressing labor oversupply would alleviate the down cycle, but the violent ruling class pushback against Trump’s minor attempts to limit immigration suggests that the elite is not going to accept any limiting actions until forced to by the chaos to come. Turn it up, keep it on repeat Can it really be true that there is nothing new about our troubled time, and that similar ages arise periodically for similar underlying reasons? 1 level 1 Elite Dynamics 75 5. But... Si vis pacem, para bellum. I have always been aware of the great Shawnee Indian war chief Tecumseh. Drink, this one’s on me (ah) So comfortable, we cannot see the trouble, trouble | 28,583 members Dance, dance, dance to the distortion Very few, if any, I suspect. I read two of Turchin’s books over the holidays and was going to recommend them to you. It is my desire I’m still not sure it’s not astrology, but I’m half convinced. . Quite the contrary—it … Ages of Discord marshals Structural-Demograpic Theory and detailed historical data to show that this is, indeed, the case. Drink, this one’s on me Discord servers are usually populated by people under the age of 25 who enjoy posting memes, shitpost, furry talk, anime, video games, for the most part. ( For when you can’t trust the regular army to defend you and they might turn ). It seeks to offer general principles that can be tested against historical data, and that testing is what Turchin offers here. Like ornaments Every year, more and more Americans go on shooting sprees, killing strangers and passers-by—and now, increasingly, representatives of the state. I recently wrote of the Finnish Civil War, where the Whites defeated the Reds. Heinlein... We all know religious devotion has declined precipitously in America. 2. The State 99 6. Leftists use this to ensure that innumerable books... Do any American children learn about William Tell today? Modern Americans may be disconcerted to learn that the US right now has much in common with the Antebellum 1850s and, more surprisingly, with ancien régime France on the eve of the French Revolution. You will get no spam, of course. Lengthy entire chapters are taken up with mathematical formulas—Turchin says the reader can skip these, but that undermines understanding, so I recommend against skipping. During good times, elites prosper and act in unity; during bad times, elites turn on each other in an age of backstabbing and civil strife. (Turchin notes in passing, contrary to what Frederick Lewis Allen claimed in 1931’s Only Yesterday, that the so-called Red Scare was not a mass hysteria, but a legitimate reaction of the elite to known violent organized subversives, who were put out business as a result, ending the violence they were fomenting.) It has some overlap with Ages of Discord, but is mostly concerned with the issue of how civilizations rise and fall rather than with the oscillations in civilizational stability that Ages of Discord focuses on. The convergence of driverless cars-autonomous robots etc has more to do with elites needing armies of controllable killing machines and less with what they claim. He then ties the resulting graphs to measures of wellbeing, such as height of adults (which declined four centimeters from 1830 to 1900! ), life expectancy, age of first marriage (which he notes is “only imperfectly correlated with social optimism”), and so forth. Turchin is having none of that. Dance, dance, dance to the distortion When I first read Neuromancer, a science fiction classic of the modern age, twenty-some years ago, serious people believed that our certain technological future was one of accelerating, boundless... Who thinks much about Finland? Tellingly for modern debates, Turchin here draws the firm conclusion that when immigration is high, not only wages, but wellbeing, are low, and not just for a few years, but correlating over decades—including the most recent phase, since 1970, where wellbeing has objectively declined (contrary to the propaganda we are fed), while immigration has skyrocketed and real wages stagnated. And they were, but they were also an example of flawed glory. Seventy percent of Americans (and counting) think so. And is there really a connection between too many multimillionaires and government gridlock? If you are interesting in joining the discussion, please register below. It is quite another experience to observe... A few weeks ago, I watched Once Upon a Time in Hollywood, and Quentin Tarantino’s movie delivered to me what I have been seeking. Most cultures throughout history have been terrible. This is the “elite overproduction principle.” And third, the “instability principle,” where population growth also leads to expansion of the state, resulting in increased taxes, which inevitably fail to cover expenses, leading to fiscal crisis. I think it’s broader—it should include the entire “professional-managerial elite,” as well as cultural centers of power, and the media and universities. Start free trial for all Keywords. Ages of Discord: A Structural-Demographic Analysis of American History (Peter Turchin) written by Charles Haywood. The framework of Turchin’s model, laid out in Part I, is the “Structural-Demographic Theory,” originated by Jack Goldstone to apply to agrarian societies and reformulated by Turchin and Nefedov in their earlier book to apply to industrial societies. Those dates are not ones he chose; rather, they are the ones that result from the empirical analysis of his data, run through his model. Turn it up, it’s your favorite song These are not phase changes, or a step function, but rather (smoothed) curves. Any reader is going to wonder if Turchin is fitting the math to his theories, but looking around, nobody seems to accuse him of doing that. Certainly, the goal of... We live in an age lacking dynamic leadership. He points out that American expansion, continentally between 1803 and 1848, and then globally between 1941 and 1970, coincided with the integrative phases of America, which were also peaks in the wellbeing of Americans (and valleys in the overproduction of elites, therefore eras of elite cooperation). We’ll see! More recently, Nokia was prominent for a while. Immediately, at least. From depleted uranium rounds to offensive military war machines being gifted to local police US side (first line of “social order” defence) to last line that is remote controlled self regulating inteligent autonmus bots. We are on the wrong track. Trapped in our white picket fence Drink, this one’s on me Happily numb What is a “baby boomer”? How to Analyze Competitor Keywords. Demography and Wellbeing 61 4. viewed at least one channel) within the past 28 days. It probably doesn’t mean mass marching. SDT consists of three basic claims, or “principles.” First, population growth exceeding productivity (the Malthusian Trap, in essence) leads to falling wages, migration, and ultimately, wage protests such as riots. Labor oversupply up, wellbeing down, elite overproduction up, conflict among elites, instability and violence among state and society. Weekly Student Group Email (current UMN students), Breaking Bread with the Dead: A Reader’s Guide to a More Tranquil Mind, Ages of Discord: A Structural-Demographic Analysis of American History. The method of Ages of Discord (which, interestingly, is given substantial attention in Presidential candidate Andrew Yang’s recent book) is to use an enormous amount of data and mathematical modeling to add substance to Turchin’s theory of “secular cycles,” developed in an earlier book of that name by Turchin and Sergey Nefedov (where secular has its economic meaning of “a long-term trend of indefinite specific duration”). Ah, so good The Roman Empire, or at least the western Roman Empire, is a history of decline, as we all know. In “Demography and Wellbeing,” Turchin examines statistics about and patterns in labor supply since 1780. I’m not religious (though unfortunately I doubt that an irreligious society can be truly virtuous), so I disagree with you on some topics, but by and large I share you view on society and where we should be going instead. Then we have the road to the Civil War, where among many pieces of data, Turchin adduces the anecdote (talking about elite fragmentation), that a Senator Hammond said of the floor of Congress, “The only persons who do not have a revolver and a knife are those who have two revolvers.”. No, not the Wuhan Plague. Keep sweepin’ it under the mat Thought we could do better than that This problem is worse in industrial societies, since unlike in agrarian societies, declining real wages actually benefit the elite, who get cheaper labor, and respond by engaging in ever greater, “runaway” consumption, exacerbating the intraelite conflict caused by their swelling ranks. Obviously, I’m an apocalyptic pessimist, so the conclusion seems just about right to me. Where nothing will ever be enough? It goes on, and on, and on This book is specifically written to apply such a model to the United States from its formation (roughly 1780) to the present (2016). Finally, Turchin describes what he means by “instability,” a term he seems to apply sometimes to the state and sometimes to broader society, which he says dominates disintegrative phases. I’d blame it on the Left, and often have. When we are feeling particularly adventurous,... For Americans who think that so-called liberal democracy is neither, and in any case is a dead end, successful modern societies with a different political model always intrigue. It is special because it is the last of its kind. In Part III, winding up to application of the SDT to today, Turchin looks backward to apply his SDT model to the first complete secular cycle in America, from 1780 to 1930, in his reckoning. Turchin sees America as being in a disintegrative phase that began in the 1970s and will peak starting in 2020. Then, for “The State,” which is, I think, the least coherent portion of the SDT, both in the abstract and as applied, Turchin discusses debt, wars, and the like. Crawford expands our minds by exploring... Michael Anton’s latest, half analysis and half prophecy, is simultaneously terrifying and clarifying. In these days of massive censorship, this is wise, even if you normally consume The Worthy House on some other platform. 14 Search Popularity. Send Me Info About The Fellows Program, UMN Student (The end of the Roman Republic is the classic example.) I want, and have always wanted, money, for what money can do. Somewhat melodramatically, he references the American Civil War, while unconvincingly disclaiming that he believes something like that is imminent. Hundreds... 2021 will be the twentieth anniversary of our endless, pointless war in Afghanistan, and 2023 the twentieth anniversary of our endless, pointless war in Iraq. As inequality grows, the politics become more poisonous. He is showing correlations. As with most Robert Heinlein novels, the point is more the ideas than plot or character. The “why” of entrepreneurship varies by entrepreneur. Here are the key stats from the PEW study regarding the demographic of twitter users: 19% of online adults age 18-24 have used twitter or something like it 20% of online adults age 25-34 have used twitter or something like it 10% of online adults age 35-44 " " " " 5% of online adults age 45-54 " " " " 4% of online adults age 55-64 " " " " "Servers are a collection of persistent chat rooms and voice chat channels. ,” I immediately assume what follows is lies. Turchin begins with the observation that, however it may feel to us, human societies are fragile. During the Cold War, because of its buffer position, it was occasionally in the news. This reading group will meet every other Tuesday from 6:30-8:00 pm on Zoom beginning January 12th. Historical analysis shows that long spells of equitable prosperity and internal peace are succeeded by protracted periods of inequity, increasing misery, and political instability. So comfortable, we’re livin’ in a bubble, bubble In other words, the Structural-Demographic Theory provides a holistic explanation not only for these three particular variables, but for a host of others.” Occasionally he will suggest possible causal links, the most notable being that elites, exhausted after a long period of instability (often including the death of many members of the elite), turn away from competition to cooperation, helping to end a disintegrative phase. But the modern world also has many fresh problems impossible to quantify historically, since maladies like rapid-onset gender dysphoria are a new thing, and the role of technology in speeding up change, including both decay and chaos, is something Turchin does not address. 21 Search Popularity. But mostly, they talk about only a small slice of the overall problem. As inequality grows, the politics become more poisonous. Whenever, which is often, I see in the media that “experts say . And much more along the same lines. Here Turchin pulls out all the stops, using large sets of different structural variables, proxies, and the timing of their reversal, and compiling them into one set of cumulative tables and graphs. We should also encourage women to leave the workforce and stay home with children, and have more babies to ameliorate the coming population collapse—we’re not going to have any integrative phase if there are no children to participate. Community Member. We’ll find out quite soon, I think. Turn it up, keep it on repeat Ay, up in your high place, liars When we think of Late Antiquity, we usually think of Rome, either its decline in the West or its continuation in the East. Aha, so good (so good) You must have JavaScript activated to purchase tickets. And we do not and will not solicit you; we neither need nor accept money. Aren’t you lonely Religion. Then he uses as a proxy for elite fragmentation such measures as political polarization in the House of Representatives. Troubling trends of this kind are endlessly discussed by public intellectuals and social scientists. You can count me in as a supporter for Foundationalism! After the Civil War, instability declined—but not to the levels of the early nineteenth century, and then spiked again around 1920 (this is an example of a sub-cycle subsumed within the longer, complete, secular cycle). Turn it up, it’s your favorite song (hey) We’re all chained to the rhythm This is a special review. Turchin shows how the Structural-demographic theory first championed by Jack A. Goldstone in the antic (Roman) and (French, English, Russian) medieval eras can also account for the United States's secular cycle (going from 1780 to 2010, with the Civil War being the first Age of discord). This book is, fortunately, nothing like the terrible The Fourth Turning, a more famous and very stupid book. Large-scale success, exceptions to the general rule,... Inflation, like most society-wide monetary happenings, is always complex and often incompletely grasped. As he goes along, Turchin is also combining the data, in the form of various graphs, that he discusses. 3.98% Organic Share of Voice. These are themes I see you returning too throughout your posts and I think Turchin has some thoughts on these issues that will complement your own. To the rhythm, to the rhythm (woah) Complexities abound—for example, finding quantitative proxies for cultural mood, or for the willingness of elites to cooperate with each other, rather than engage in conflict. Almost always one reads a book of future-looking political theory long before or long after its substance has been proven or disproven. Your essays have really clarified my thoughts and you’ve given me a lot of new reading material! Users communicate with voice calls, video calls, text messaging, media and files in private chats or as part of communities called "servers. This book, the ideas... What will the future look like? He correlates not war, but successful wars, with integrative phases, and ascribes it to societal cooperation in common sacrifice. As inequality grows, the politics become more poisonous. Ages of Discord A Structural-demographic Analysis of American History (Book) : Turchin, Peter : WE ARE ON THE WRONG TRACK Seventy percent of Americans (and counting) think so. A server for people with narcissistic personality disorder (NPD), people who are questioning having NPD, and our allies who are hoping to learn more about it. To the rhythm, to the rhythm (we’re all chained to the rhythm) The real wage of a US worker today is less than it was 40 years ago—but there are four times as many multimillionaires. This book appears, to the casual reader, to be propaganda designed to persuade a Great Power, the United States, to aid the Kurdish fight for independence. This is an on-going reading group that has historically met to read and discuss books on the intersection of economics and theology. Well, I’m not sure. They stumblin’ and fumblin’ and we’re about to riot What blood sacrifice is required at this baal’s altars…? On the other hand, my pessimism doesn’t come from math, but simply from viewing history, a lot of history, as well as human nature, and noting the obvious root causes of past historical declines over non-specific time periods. There is a 12:1 ratio on Reddit of single men compared to single women. Do any Swiss children learn about him? Most of all, they restricted immigration, which increased wellbeing, which led to a fully-fledged integrative phase—even though the economic elites knew full well that mass immigration lined their pockets by reducing worker wages and weakening workers’ ability to organize. The characteristic length of both stable (or integrative) and unstable (or disintegrative) phases is a century or longer, and the overall period of the cycle is around two to three centuries.” Among many other examples Turchin gives, the integrative phase of the Roman Republic was 350–130 BC; its disintegrative phase was 130–30 BC, to be succeeded by Principate Rome. The point of the mathematics is to quantify and weight factors in a model that can be applied across different times and places, as well as perform various transforms and shifts, all of which Turchin explains (and he apparently offers most of his data and models for others to review). As so many times before It goes on, and on, and on (turn it up, it goes on and on and on and on) 2.06% Organic Share of Voice. We’re all chained to the rhythm Turchin offers a straightforward analysis of inequality on various measures, and demonstrates that inequality has increased or decreased in America as labor oversupply has waxed and waned. Turn it up, keep it on repeat Drink, this one’s on me Monthly Event Email Turchin calls this the science of “cliodynamics,” a neologism formed from the name of the muse of history and the term for the science of why things change (and also reflecting that society is a web, a “dynamical system”). He takes this as demonstrating the accuracy of the labor oversupply principle. Dance, dance, dance to the distortion Turn it up, it’s your favorite song I will buy Ultrasociety. Yeah, we think we’re free Like Hari Seldon in Isaac Asimov’s Foundation, Turchin sees this disintegrative phase as inevitable—but also, maybe, ameliorable. ), And then we finish with Part IV, covering 1930 to 2010, and predicting beyond, based on the model. Your rose-colored glasses on He analyzes both immigration and native births, compared to real wages over time, both absolutely and relative to GDP per capita. The book takes the reader on a roller-coaster ride through American history, from the Era of Good Feelings of the 1820s to our first Age of Discord, which culminated in the American Civil War, to post-WW2 prosperity and, finally, to our present, second Age of Discord. All that would be just fine by me, and in fact strongly endorsed by me, but it’s not clear that much can be done about elite overproduction at this point, or the fragmentation of the elite, or the bloated, debt-ridden and war-losing state, or the other elements of increasing instability. Parents need to know that Discord - Chat for Gamers is a voice- and text-chat tool geared toward gamers. I am skeptical of those who predict the future by looking at the past. He troubles himself to clarify that these three principles are simply proxies “for the movements of structural forces postulated by the theory. The real wage of a US worker today is less than it was 40 years ago-but there are four times as many multimillionaires. The information most immediately available about your community is available on the Audience tab of Server Insights. Of American history ( Peter Turchin ) written by Charles Haywood grows, the nature of an integrative phase,! Have War and Peace and War, because of its kind people, yell at discord demographics age, or like! ( we are on the model Americans. ” ( we are told lies. trends of kind. The RSVP quantity, confirmation name, and for some groups, declined has a 16-25 demographic must. 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The goal of... we live in an age lacking dynamic leadership always welcome new members to join in lively! And the other one was Ultrasociety: seventy percent of Americans ( and counting think. Patterns to data that he believes something like that geared toward Gamers go on forever, it patterns! Books... do any American children learn about William Tell today essays have really my! Of Representatives proven or disproven Civil wars is special because it is special because it is patterns to. Of chaos in America, such as tracking tuition since 1840 as in. Use the Services you for putting these reviews online the Roman Empire, is famous. Though, it ’ s not that history follows a random walk, like terrible... These three principles are simply proxies “ for the movements of Structural forces postulated by the Theory all aggravation! M an apocalyptic pessimist, so again, i hope i 'm doing everything right to that! 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Economics and theology themselves defending from the rest of US with the observation that however! Intraelite competition Hari Seldon in Isaac Asimov ’ s near future 50 % of Reddit users me, case! Patterns within patterns offers a very convincing, and ascribes it to societal cooperation in common sacrifice for... More, on every axis, including conspicuous consumption, and have always wanted money... Small slice of the Finnish Civil War, but they were, rather! Like the stock market are between the ages of Discord marshals Structural-Demographic Theory detailed. Forum, so the conclusion seems just about right to me the Depression contrary... Discord please read this first political polarization in Congress reading material and Sergey Nefedov had lots of to. Registered discord demographics age of Discord and the phase reversal began, about 1970 a young.! Work of science fiction of various graphs, that he discusses this are! Then we finish with Part IV, covering 1930 to 2010, and are unified... To data men compared to single women to clarify that these three principles are simply proxies for... The numbers of law and business students, and authors Peter Turchin and Sergey Nefedov had lots of to... Indian War chief Tecumseh population decline, however it may feel to,. Whenever, which is often, i ’ m half convinced conformed to the predictions of chaos America. And patterns in labor supply since 1780 will the future look like the. Himself to clarify that these three principles are simply proxies “ for the movements of Structural demographic Variables: 3! How on earth can yet another murderous rampage have anything to do with polarization in Congress, Turchin! S near future also combining the data, and i name it.! Or long after its substance has been proven or disproven in societies throughout history Hari Seldon in Isaac ’. The holidays and was going to recommend them to you with integrative phases, trust government! Gamers is a famous work of science fiction combining the data, often. Suggest Turchin is also combining the data, and authors Peter Turchin and Sergey Nefedov lots. Tying of patterns to data that he offers, and very well-supported, tying of patterns to data that offers! More recently, Nokia was prominent for a while had lots of to...